The global financial policy is changing rapidly; can Bitcoin continue its rise from July?

1. Market Overview

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is at a critical crossroads. Chairman Powell stated that the Fed might have already cut interest rates if not for the tariff plans that could undermine the success of inflation control. Although there are still uncertainties regarding the interest rate decision in July, the flexibility of policy seems to be increasing, and future weak employment data may lower the bar for rate cuts.

At the same time, U.S. fiscal policy has also added new variables. The highly anticipated tax and spending bill passed the Senate by a narrow margin, and the House will debate and vote on it on Wednesday. The bill involves tax cuts, reductions in social spending, while increasing military and immigration enforcement budgets, and is expected to add up to $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

In the trade sector, the government has taken a hardline stance, clearly stating that it will not postpone the tariff deadline of July 9, specifically targeting Japan as a pressure point, which has intensified tensions in the global market. It is worth noting that due to the Independence Day holiday, the US stock market will close early at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4 and will remain closed all day on July 4, as the market enters a brief period of silence ahead of the policy storm.

On the occasion of the 28th anniversary of Hong Kong's return, a licensed virtual asset exchange has set up an offline experience booth at the West Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station to provide convenient services to the public. Industry analysts believe that the development of Web3 is not only a technological iteration but also a reshaping of efficiency and trust paradigms. The year 2025 is seen as an important milestone for Hong Kong to start anew with digital sovereignty and institutional innovation. Against the backdrop of improved on-chain efficiency and the accelerated trend of digital asset institutionalization, Hong Kong is expected to play a leading role in the new global financial order.

Bitcoin fell to $105,000 this morning, and analysts pointed out that the upward momentum of Bitcoin has shown signs of weakening for the first time, possibly entering a consolidation phase or a local top. The decline in spot trading volume and the increase in profit-taking behavior have made the short-term holder's cost price of $98,700 a key support level. Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically performs weakly in the third quarter, with an average return rate of 6%. It is expected that future price volatility will further decrease, and the trend may continue to oscillate within a range.

Statistics show that in the past decade, Bitcoin has recorded a rise in seven Julys, with an average increase of 9.1%. Historical data supports the market's expectation of challenging the $116,000 mark. However, some analysts hold a relatively pessimistic view, warning that the real sell-off has yet to begin, predicting that Bitcoin prices may fall below $100,000 to a range of $92,000-$93,000, and could even touch a potential bottom of $60,000-$70,000. If this trend materializes, other cryptocurrencies may face a further decline risk of 50%-80%.

The on-chain market has been relatively quiet recently, with no popular speculative targets appearing. However, the stock on-chain craze initiated by certain platforms has brought some highlights. A listed company's stock price reached a historical high of $99.18 yesterday, which also revived related tokens on the Solana chain, with the market value soaring from $14,000 to $4.4 million in nearly three days, rising by 1400% within 24 hours.

2. Key Data (as of July 2, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $106,465 (Year-to-date +13.8%), Daily spot trading volume $26.059 billion
• Ethereum: $2,439.94 (Year-to-date -26.88%), daily spot trading volume is $14.38 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 63 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB ETH: 0.7 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 64.6%, ETH 9.0%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.1186
• Sector rises and falls: AI sector down 4.48%; RWA sector down 4.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 100,830 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $256 million, including $77.6394 million in BTC liquidations, $56.1918 million in ETH liquidations, and $13.8666 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (107151.13 USD), lower line (105029.32 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper line (2467.39 USD), lower line (2418.53 USD)

3. ETF Flow (as of July 1)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$342 million (15 consecutive days of net inflow comes to an end)
• Ethereum ETF: +40.6798 million USD (net inflow for 3 consecutive days)

4. Today's Outlook

Due to Independence Day in the United States, the US stock market will close 3 hours early on July 3rd (which is at 1 AM Beijing time on July 4th); it will be closed all day on July 4th.

• A certain platform will launch Echo Protocol on July 2. ( ECHO )
• Another platform has launched Wormhole (W)
• A certain Solana staking ETF is expected to launch on July 2.
• A certain exchange will delist the USDT perpetual contract trading pairs of NC, SLERF, KNC, and ALPHAd at 16:00 on July 4.
• US June ADP employment number ( million ): previous value 3.7, expected 9.5 (July 2, 20:15)
• U.S. June Unemployment Rate: Previous value 4.2%, Expected 4.3% (July 3, 20:30)
• US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls ( million ): previous value 13.9, expected 11 (July 3, 20:30)
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock approximately 40.6 million tokens at 3 PM on July 2, which is 0.67% of the current circulation, valued at about 10.7 million USD.

Top 500 market cap gains today: Humanity Protocol (H) rose 106.52%, Cobak Token (CBK) rose 50.90%, Useless Coin (USELESS) rose 24.89%, Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL) rose 17.70%, Aleo (ALEO) rose 16.68%.

5. Hot News

• A publicly traded cannabis company establishes a subsidiary to set up a DOGE treasury and related business.
• A trading platform will launch CROSS(CROSS)
• London-listed company Anemoi has increased its Bitcoin investment ratio from 30% to approximately 40%.
• Analysis: Bitcoin's average rise in July was 9.1%, and it may challenge the $116,000 mark in the upcoming weeks.
• Author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad": I bought another BTC, believing that Bitcoin will one day reach 1 million dollars.
• Linghang Pharmaceutical Biotechnology plans to acquire all shares of Conflux to expand in the blockchain sector.
• Japanese game company CyberStep plans to invest 1 billion yen in cryptocurrency investment.
• An analysis report: BTC usually performs weakly in Q3, with an average return rate of 6%.
• Nasdaq listed company LGHL has accumulated $5 million worth of HYPE, SOL, and SUI.
• The Move Foundation reserve wallet received 45 million $MOVE from a certain platform and currently holds 168 million coins.
• Trusta.AI announced the $TA token economic model, with 3% allocated for airdrops.
• A family-related cryptocurrency project raised $220 million for Bitcoin mining.
• Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September and to lower them three times in total.
• The Katana mainnet is officially launched, and a reward program of 1 billion KAT tokens is initiated.
• A certain company applied for a U.S. banking license to custody USDC reserves.
• A trading platform plans to launch its own blockchain and introduce "stock tokens" in the European Union.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary: Stablecoin legislation may be completed by mid-July
• BitMine announces a private placement of $250 million and launches an Ethereum financial strategy.
• JPMorgan gave a "neutral" rating to a certain company, setting the target price at $80 by the end of 2026.