Dogecoin Stagnates After 42 Days of Flat Price — Is a Crisis Coming?

The chart of Dogecoin has turned into what independent market analyst Kevin calls "really doing nothing" for nearly a month and a half. In a broadcast on X, the veteran technical expert recounted that the final decisive move of the memecoin was a strong sell-off over six weeks ago; since then, the price has been compressed into a narrow range, threatening to lose the structural support it regained at the end of March. The motivation for Dogecoin is still weak. Kevin has been tracking the same horizontal level for "many weeks". The upper limit of the range is the retest level after the bear market around $0.156, while the main "macro 0.382" Fibonacci retracement level lies lower at $0.138 — a zone he has repeatedly described as "his boundary". Only a weekly candle closing below that level could convince him that the bullish rally that started at the end of 2023 has been completely broken. He warns that "If Dogecoin breaks below $0.138 on a weekly close, then perhaps it is over."

Momentum signals do not provide early confirmation in either direction. Commenting on the widely followed 3-day MACD, Kevin refuted claims on social media that a bullish crossover had occurred. He stated, "People don't know how to read this indicator properly." "Technically, yes, by definition it is a crossover, but in reality, it is not a crossover […] You need the expansion of moving averages to have a confirmed crossover." He warned that without that expansion, the slight increase in the histogram chart could "easily reverse."

With the current spot price inertia lasting up to 42 days, the risk-reward has also been compressed. Kevin framed the decision tree in clear terms: hold the congestion level of $0.156–$0.138 and Dogecoin maintains its constructive mid-term structure; lose it and traders have to look down at the psychological threshold of $0.10. Even there, he only sees the possibility of a counter-trend recovery to $0.25–0.26. The broader market context is not providing much immediate relief. Using Bitcoin as a leading indicator, Kevin reminds viewers that the entire complex is still in what he calls a "major correction phase," triggered when the three-day MACD crosses down in January 2025. Studying the historical macro pullbacks of Bitcoin shows they last "anywhere from 114 to 174 days," he notes. "They operate in the same way regardless of the economic circumstances. They last from 114 to 174 [days]. Each time, regardless of whether it is a bear market [hay] or a bull market. Bad news, good news doesn't matter. They always last the same amount of time. 174 days is the longest in history, 114 days is the average of all major correction phases in history," Kevin explained. If Bitcoin cannot hold the $70,000 level, he argues, the likelihood of reaching a new all-time high in the short term will be quite low. "If Bitcoin breaks below the $70,000 level and heads towards $60,000, we will have a significant recovery from there. You will see a major counter-trend rally. Everything will seem bright again, but the chances of making a new high are very slim. Similar to Dogecoin. If Dogecoin drops to this $0.10 level and it recovers, it might look like a significant counter-trend recovery back to $0.25 or $0.26 and then it just rolls over and that's the end," Kevin stated. Therefore, for Dogecoin, the next decisive signal could be a strong breakout of the $0.156–$0.138 range or a confirmed momentum resurgence on the higher time frame MACD — depending on which happens first. Until then, the asset remains trapped in Kevin's words: "We are doing nothing… there is not much to say."