Ethereum Strong Rebound, Analyzing Uniswap's Potential Rise

Recently, the price of Ethereum has surged significantly, driving the development of the entire ecosystem. Over the past month, the price of Ethereum has risen by 48%, and this momentum has also pushed up the prices of many Ethereum ecosystem projects. Historical data shows that during bullish market cycles, high-quality projects within the Ethereum ecosystem often exhibit a multiplier effect. As one of the important projects in the Ethereum ecosystem, Uniswap ( UNI ) has increased by 28% over the past month. If the current upward trend can be sustained, UNI may have further room for growth.

In addition to benefiting from the overall trend of Ethereum, UNI also has its unique advantages that may provide additional rise momentum. These factors include the potential improvement of the regulatory environment, the excellent business data of the project itself, and the driving force behind the structural increase in token prices.

Evolution of the Regulatory Environment

Between 2021 and 2023, Uniswap experienced a period of regulatory uncertainty. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched an investigation into Uniswap Labs, focusing on its marketing strategies and investor services. This sparked extensive discussions within the industry about whether DeFi platforms and governance tokens should be regarded as securities.

Between 2023 and 2024, regulatory pressure has increased. The SEC issued a Wells notice to Uniswap Labs, accusing it of potentially operating as an unregistered securities exchange. Uniswap Labs subsequently submitted a detailed response, refuting the SEC's allegations.

Starting in 2025, signs of loosening in the regulatory environment began to appear. The SEC terminated its investigation into Uniswap Labs and ceased enforcement actions. Subsequently, the SEC also invited Uniswap Labs to participate in a roundtable discussion on cryptocurrency trading regulation. The U.S. Congress also began to advance a new regulatory framework for crypto assets, which is seen as the foundational blueprint for future regulation.

Currently, Uniswap's tokenomics scheme has mitigated significant legal risks for UNI. With the new government in power, cryptocurrency regulatory policies are being adjusted towards a direction that is more conducive to the industry's development. Uniswap Labs has played an important advisory role in this process, and more favorable regulatory policies may be on the horizon.

Project Business Performance

Uniswap is one of the largest decentralized exchange protocols in the cryptocurrency market. Currently, its Total Value Locked (TVL) has reached $5.12 billion, with a trading volume of $84.5 billion in the past 30 days, ranking second among DEXs. Over the past year, Uniswap has generated $929 million in revenue, demonstrating excellent profitability.

From a financial perspective, the Uniswap Foundation has sufficient funds. As of the end of March 2025, the foundation holds tokens and stablecoins worth approximately $150 million, which is expected to support operations until January 2027.

In terms of token economics, Uniswap has been exploring new solutions. Although currently holding UNI directly does not generate immediate returns, the team is advancing the "fee switch" proposal, which could bring new value to UNI. Additionally, Uniswap has launched a Layer 2 blockchain called Unichain, providing new use cases for UNI, such as staking to earn validator rewards.

Token Market Performance

The current circulating market capitalization of UNI is $4.2 billion, and the fully diluted market capitalization is $6.7 billion. All tokens are in circulation, with approximately 37% staked or locked.

In the derivatives market, the contract open interest for UNI is $448 million, with an open interest to market cap ratio of about 10.6%. The long-short position comparison is balanced, but large accounts tend to hold long positions.

From the price trend, UNI shows a similar pattern to Ethereum, but the volatility is usually greater. In the recent upward trend, UNI's rise has temporarily lagged behind Ethereum, which may indicate that UNI still has further room for growth.

Summary

As the regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies becomes clearer, Uniswap, as a leading decentralized exchange in the industry, is expected to benefit from this. The project's business data shows strong performance and its financial condition is robust. Through the Unichain project and the fee switch proposal, the UNI token may gain new value drivers. Considering the overall trend of the Ethereum ecosystem and the development potential of UNI itself, UNI may be one of the quality assets worth paying attention to in the Ethereum ecosystem.