The recently released PPI data appears to show a comprehensive upward trend at first glance, but a deeper analysis reveals that this growth is mainly driven by the service industry. Further breakdown of the data indicates that more than half of the increase comes from the profit margins of final demand trade services, which surged significantly by 2.0% within a single month.



Although many people may think this is related to tariff policies, the actual situation is not so. The dramatic fluctuations of this indicator mainly reflect the dynamic relationship between wholesale selling prices and retail purchasing prices. As long as one of these two prices rises while the other falls, it can lead to significant changes in marginal prices in the short term.

For example, suppose the purchase price for a grocery retailer is 1 dollar per bottle, the wholesale price remains unchanged (0.90 dollars), but the retail price only increases slightly by 0.05 dollars, in this case, the year-on-year increase in marginal price could be as high as 50%.

Therefore, if we exclude the factor of 'PPI trading services,' the direct impact of tariffs on final demand goods excluding food and energy is actually only 0.4%, far lower than the market generally expects.

This analysis reminds us that we need to be more cautious and comprehensive when interpreting economic data. The apparent fluctuations in the data may mask a more complex economic reality. For policymakers and market participants, a deep understanding of the driving factors behind this data is crucial, as it helps in making more accurate judgments and decisions.

At the same time, this also highlights the important position of the service industry in the current economic structure. The price fluctuations in the service industry cannot be ignored in terms of their impact on overall economic indicators, which may indicate that the economic structure is undergoing a transformation from being traditionally manufacturing-dominated to gradually transitioning towards a service-dominated one.

Overall, the interpretation of this PPI data provides us with an important economic insight: even behind seemingly obvious data trends, there may be complex economic dynamics hidden. This reminds us that when analyzing economic data, we need to be more comprehensive and in-depth, avoiding simplistic conclusions.
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SurvivorshipBiasvip
· 08-15 03:51
Market trends = Human behavior trajectory
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NotSatoshivip
· 08-15 03:51
What’s interesting about the old data? It’s bullish and that’s it.
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BTCBeliefStationvip
· 08-15 03:33
What experts do small winners pretend to be?
View OriginalReply0
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