#美联储降息预期# Looking back at the past, I always feel that history tends to repeat itself. The current changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations remind me of the key turning points in the past few economic cycles. The erratic inflation data seems to have disrupted the market's established expectations once again.

The unexpected rise in PPI in July, especially the surge in service prices, undoubtedly gave the hawks a strong shot in the arm. This reminds me of the mistake at the end of 2018 - when the market generally believed that inflationary pressures had eased, only to face an untimely rate hike at the end of the year. It now seems that the Fed is trying to avoid repeating that mistake and is remaining highly vigilant about inflation data.

But history tells us that excessive focus on single-month data often leads to misjudgment. Looking back to early 2016, there was a similar inflation rebound at that time, but it ultimately proved to be just a short-term fluctuation. Therefore, I believe it is still too early to draw conclusions now. The key is to observe the data trends in the coming months, especially the changes in the core PCE index.

Another aspect worth noting is the tariff policy left over from the Trump era. This has not only affected the cost structure of businesses but has also disrupted the normal supply and demand relationship. A similar situation occurred during the Nixon era in 1971, when the import surcharge also triggered short-term inflationary pressures.

Overall, I tend to believe that the current rebound in inflation is more due to structural and policy factors rather than demand-driven. Therefore, the Fed may hold steady at the September meeting, but there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts within the year. After all, from historical experience, excessive tightening is often more destructive than mild inflation.

For veterans like us who have experienced multiple cycles, it is crucial to remain calm and maintain a long-term perspective. The market always oscillates between fear and greed, and real opportunities often quietly emerge when everyone is in a state of panic.