Is Bitcoin Still Profitable? Analysts Debate the Future of BTC

In the minds of many investors, Bitcoin is like a dream of wealth—a magical asset capable of growing by hundreds of percent each year and sending its value "to the moon" at prices of millions of dollars. Analyst Willy Woo believes that the Bitcoin boom may have ended. However, not everyone agrees. Willy Woo Predicts Bitcoin's CAGR Will Decrease and Stabilize at 8% Woo shared a chart titled "Annual Returns of Bitcoin," showing that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Bitcoin has sharply decreased, from over 100% in 2017 to around 30–40% after 2020. This was the period when major institutions, including corporations and governments, began to accumulate Bitcoin.

"Everyone thinks BTC is like a magical unicorn climbing infinitely on the moonlight. This is the actual CAGR chart. We have passed the year 2017, the year in which we will witness many 100 percent growths," Willy Woo said. Woo predicts that the CAGR of Bitcoin will continue to decline over the next 15-20 years and eventually stabilize at around 8%. This rate is in line with long-term monetary growth of (5%) and GDP growth of (3%). He emphasizes that even with a lower CAGR, Bitcoin will still outperform most other publicly traded assets. However, investor and author Fred Krueger disagrees. He points out that Bitcoin has increased 7 times from its lowest point in December 2022, currently trading at 103,000 dollars as of May 2025. In addition, in a recent interview, Arthur Hayes went even further. He predicts that Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars before Donald Trump's current term ends. He hopes the price will reach 250,000 dollars by the end of 2025, a 1,000% increase in just four years. GDP Growth And Liquidity Are Considered The Main Drivers For The Future Growth Of Bitcoin Woo's predictions are largely based on GDP expansion and monetary growth. Meanwhile, Paul Guerra, Head of Social at RealVision, has provided deeper insights into this issue. When discussing liquidity, he argued that traditional diversification strategies may no longer be effective in today's market environment. This is because assets such as stocks, bonds, Bitcoin, and real estate now tend to move together, driven by a single key factor: liquidity. Paul said: "The real driving force of the market is liquidity - the amount of money flowing through the system."

The global liquidity index is currently growing at a rate of 8% per year. To understand liquidity, Paul suggests that we must first understand GDP. He provided the formula for GDP growth: GDP Growth = Population Growth + Productivity Growth + Debt Growth. But today, population growth and productivity are declining worldwide. As a result, governments are forced to inject liquidity to maintain GDP and support rising debt. "The population is AGING. Productivity growth is EATING. Debt is EXPLODING. To maintain GDP and repay debts to the people, the government has only one tool: Pumping liquidity," Paul explained.

Therefore, liquidity is expected to increase at an even faster rate. Paul predicts that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by the end of 2025 and enter what he calls the "Banana Zone." This term describes phases of strong asset price increases driven by abundant liquidity. Historical examples include the increase of 19,900% of Bitcoin from 2013 to 2017 and the increase of 699,900% of Ethereum in previous cycles. However, these analyses focus heavily on macroeconomic factors while overlooking potential technical risks. For example, there is a growing concern that advancements in quantum computing could threaten confidence in the long-term viability of Bitcoin.