#加密市场反弹# #辣妹儿李嘉欣#

As of 11 PM Beijing time on May 11, the latest news on the China-US negotiations regarding tariff issues taking place in Geneva.
As of 11:00 PM Beijing time on May 11, 2025, the tariff negotiations between China and the United States are still ongoing in Geneva, Switzerland. Both sides have not yet released a formal joint statement, but some key information has already leaked:
### **1. Negotiation Progress**
- **Trump Claims "Major Breakthrough"**: Former U.S. President Trump announced on social media that the negotiations were "very successful," claiming a "major breakthrough," but the Chinese side has not confirmed this, and neither side has released specific details.
- **The talks continue**: On the first day (May 10), the negotiations lasted about 8 hours, and discussions continued on May 11, indicating that both sides are still in contact, but no final agreement has been reached.
- **US demands**: Hope that China will further open its market, reduce the trade deficit, and may seek to ease China's restrictions on rare earth exports.
- **China's Position**: Insists on the cancellation of all unilateral tariffs by the U.S., does not accept the model of "partial tariff reduction in exchange for concessions," and emphasizes that negotiations must be conducted on the basis of equality and respect.
### **2. Market Reaction**
- **A-share risk aversion sentiment rises**: Due to uncertainty in negotiations, over 4,000 A-shares fell on Friday (May 10), and market risk aversion sentiment strengthened in the short term.
- **Companies Bypass Southeast Asia**: In April, China's exports to the US fell by 21%, but exports to countries like Thailand and Vietnam increased by over 20%, indicating that companies are using third countries to avoid high tariffs.
### **3. Future Outlook**
- Negotiations may extend into next week; if the U.S. does not cancel or significantly reduce tariffs, it is unlikely that China will make core concessions.
- The market is paying attention to the Shenzhen International Battery Technology Exhibition (CIBF2025) on May 15 and the Guoxuan High-Tech solid-state battery launch event, which may become a new hotspot for A-shares.
The negotiations are currently at a stalemate, and we need to wait for further official announcements.
2. Was there also a trade negotiation 18 years ago?
Yes, there were indeed multiple trade negotiations between China and the United States in 2018, especially after the Trump administration initiated the "301 investigation" against China and imposed tariffs. The two sides attempted to resolve trade frictions through negotiations. Here is a review of the key events of the China-U.S. trade negotiations in 2018:
### **1. The Outbreak of the Trade War and Initial Negotiation Attempts**
- **March 2018**: The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on approximately $50 billion worth of Chinese goods based on the results of the "301 investigation," primarily targeting high-tech products.
- **China's Countermeasure**: China quickly announced additional tariffs on approximately $3 billion worth of U.S. goods, including agricultural products (such as soybeans), automobiles, and more.
- **April**: The United States threatens to impose an additional $100 billion in tariffs, and China states it will "stay with it to the end."
### **2. May 2018: Liu He visits the US for negotiations**
- **May 2018**: Chinese Vice Premier Liu He led a delegation to the United States to negotiate with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and others in an attempt to ease tensions.
- **Brief Ceasefire**: Both parties reached a certain consensus, with the U.S. temporarily suspending additional tariffs, but no substantial breakthrough was achieved in the negotiations.
### **3. December 2018: G20 Summit "Truce Agreement"**
- **December 1, 2018**: During the G20 summit in Argentina, the leaders of China and the United States met and agreed to suspend further tariffs, setting a negotiation period of 90 days.
- **Negotiation Goals**: The US hopes that China will make concessions in areas such as intellectual property protection, market access, and reducing the trade deficit.
### **4. Negotiation Breakdown and Tariff Escalation**
- **May 2019**: Due to the negotiations not meeting expectations, the United States raised tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10% to 25%, and China immediately imposed tariffs on $60 billion worth of American goods.
- **Subsequent Negotiations**: Despite reaching a "ceasefire" again at the G20 Osaka Summit in June 2019, the trade war continued until the signing of the first phase economic and trade agreement in January 2020.
### **5. Comparison of Negotiations in 2025 and 2018**
- **Similarities**: The negotiations in 2025 are also actively pushed by the U.S. side, and the Trump administration still adopts a "pressure while negotiating" strategy.
- **Differences**: The tariff levels in 2025 are higher (with some product tariffs reaching 125%), and China has a stronger countermeasure capability in supply chain adjustments and independent innovation.
### **Conclusion**
The negotiations in 2018 briefly eased the trade war but failed to fundamentally resolve the issues, ultimately evolving into a long-term confrontation. The negotiations in 2025 are still ongoing, but China has clearly stated that it will not make concessions on principled issues and demands that the U.S. first lift unilateral tariffs.